29th July 2019

Love Island or BoE – It is what it is….

It would seem that love does conquer all, well at least when it comes to the average Brits’ interest in who will be the next Bank of England Governor!

It would seem the average British punter cares more about who will win this year’s Love Island than who will take over from Mark Carney when he steps down in January next year from his role of the governor of the BoE after six years.

Despite the importance of the role to the UK’s economic well-being, a quick check on betting comparison website oddschecker.com reveals that the Great British punter is more interested in who wins Love Island with 28 betting sites willing to give you odds, compared to just two for the Governorship.

Despite the odds being stacked against her Kames Capital’s head of rates Sandra Holdsworth has created a brief form guide of the runners and riders who are most likely to get mugged off versus those likely to get a text and guide Britain’s national economic and monetary policy through the potentially difficult times ahead post-Brexit.

The Outsiders

Cristine Lagarde – 100-1 – Lagarde is considered a real outsider having just resigned as managing director of the IMF to take up the presidency of the European Central Bank and extremely unlikely to be interested.

Janet Yellen – 33-1 – ex chair of the US Federal Reserve, is believed to be not interested, with reports suggesting the Brexit debacle has put her off.

The Pack

Sir John Cunliffe – 11/1 – the current deputy governor with responsibility for financial stability and current member of Monetary Policy Committee is reportedly a tough negotiator, but needs to be on his best persuasive form to get the job.

Ben Broadbent – 10/1 – also a deputy governor this time for monetary policy, is an ex Goldman Sachs economist which may be an advantage, or possibly not!

Sir Dave Ramsden – 10/1 – Another deputy governor this time for markets and banking, is a former chief economic adviser to HM Treasury and led the work on the ‘five key tests’ assessment on whether the UK should join the Euro, which now seems well in the distant past!

The Favourites

Dame Nemat (Minouche) Shafik – 11/2 – Ex-deputy governor and MPC member, but now currently is one of three clear favourites, and definitely worth a punt on becoming the Bank’s first female governor.

Reghuram Rajan – 9/2 – The ex-chief economist to the IMF and ex-govenor of the Reserve Bank of India was an early favourite but odds are now widening after recent reports suggest he has been put off by the current Brexit turmoil.

Andrew Bailey – 2/1 – the current CEO of the Financial Conduct Authority and ex-BoE deputy governor is the clear favourite although recent bad publicity surrounding liquidity and oversight of regulated funds following the fallout from the Woodford situation.

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